Consilium Policy Advisors Group
Research
Publications
In-depth research papers and policy analysis
Research PapersConvergence Under Pressure: EU Candidates Standing Through Five Macro Lenses
An assessment of accession momentum, twin deficits, inflation, monetary policy, labour markets, and growth across the seven formal EU candidate countries, distinguishing economic convergence from political and negotiating readiness.
Research PapersRomania Macro Risks Report – June 2026
The June 2026 edition of CPAG's Macro Risks Report updates Romania's macroeconomic risk assessment, with a focus on fiscal pressures, inflation dynamics, financing conditions, and growth vulnerabilities. It places Romania in a regional context and assesses how fiscal consolidation and external uncertainty shape the near-term outlook. The report also examines labour-market signals, external balances, public-debt dynamics, and the policy constraints facing Romania through the remainder of the year.
Analysis PaperRomania’s Political Turnover and Legislative Volatility: A Tale That Endures
A data-driven analysis of Romania's political instability, cabinet turnover, and legislative volatility between 2011 and 2026, highlighting the mismatch between short-lived governments and long-term reform horizons. It examines the economic cost of repeated institutional resets and the difficulty of sustaining coherent reforms.
Research PapersTechnology Diffusion Through Trade Within the EU
An analysis of how trade in high-technology goods and services drives technology diffusion across EU member states, with implications for productivity convergence and industrial policy. The report compares frontier and follower economies and identifies policy levers that could restart the diffusion process after 2019.
Research PapersGermany & France as Gravitational Poles
An analysis of the gravitational pull exerted by Germany and France on European economic dynamics, trade flows, and policy coordination. It tracks domestic value added and trade exposure across CEE economies, showing how the two core markets shape regional convergence. The results identify where integration is deepening and where domestic value creation remains vulnerable to external demand.
Research PapersTransitioning Romanian Youth Between the Educational System and the Labour Market
An analysis of Romania's youth transition between education and employment, focusing on NEETs and the frictions between the educational system and the labour market. The report maps gender, education, and regional gaps and proposes policy routes for smoother school-to-work transitions.
ArticlesDomestic Policy Options for the Oil Price Shock
This article examines the domestic policy options available in the context of an oil price shock, assessing fiscal and structural measures to mitigate the economic impact on Romania. It analyses four scenarios for the government, evaluating trade-offs between temporary fuel price caps, targeted fiscal transfers, and broader structural interventions to protect consumers and stabilise the economy. It also considers how excise-duty reductions could be absorbed along the supply chain, how higher fuel costs feed into inflation expectations, and how a temporary hybrid price mechanism could share the shock between consumers, producers, and the state.
Research PapersRomania Macro Risks Report – March 2026
The March 2026 update of CPAG's Macro Risks Report highlights a stronger-than-expected fiscal adjustment in the second half of 2025. At the same time, the analysis indicates that Romania entered 2026 facing elevated inflation, substantial financing needs, and modest economic growth. It compares these pressures with regional developments and assesses the main risks to the near-term outlook.
Research PapersRomania Bilateral Export Dynamics
A quantitative assessment of Romania's bilateral export dynamics with Germany, France, and Italy using quarterly data from 2012:Q1 to 2025:Q4. It measures income elasticity, exchange-rate effects, and adjustment speeds to show how deeply exports are embedded in European value chains.
Media
In the Press
Latest media mentions
Ziare.com — The decarbonisation law reopened the coal power debate. Laurian Lungu: the political class failed to deliver an energy strategy
Euronews Romania — Laurian Lungu: Romania Remains on a Knife-Edge in Rating Agency Assessments
BGNES — Romania’s Inflation Forces People to Choose Between Food and Healthcare
Leadership
Meet Our Team
Economists and policy experts dedicated to advancing economic policy research
Laurian Lungu
Co-Founder of CPAG
Laurian Lungu holds a PhD in Economics from Cardiff University, a MA in Economics from University of Liverpool and a MBA degree from the Canadian MBA Programme in Bucharest. Previously, he worked in academia, teaching courses in Macroeconomics and Mathematical Methods for both undergraduate and postgraduate degrees at Cardiff University's Economics department. His areas of expertise are in the fields of macroeconomic forecasting, policy modelling, international finance and energy. He is the author of a number of articles and analyses published in internationally renowned professional journals and books. He has been an economic adviser for more than 20 years.
Ella Viktoria Kállai
Co-Founder of CPAG
Ella Viktoria Kállai was a macroeconomist at Alpha Bank Romania and worked in the bank from 2001. Previously she was a research fellow in the Economics Institute of the Academy of Science from Prague, Université de Paris 1, Center for Integration Studies Bonn and Institute for Computer Technique Cluj. She obtained her PhDs in Economics from Université de Paris 1, Pantheone-Sorbonne in July 2000, from Charles University Prague and State University of New York in December 2000. She also has a MA in Mathematics from Babes Bolyai University Cluj and a MA in Economics from Academy of Economics Studies Bucharest. Her main research interests are growth theories, labour markets and human capital, fiscal policy, monetary and financial issues.
Alexandra Irimiea
Director of CPAG
Alexandra Irimiea has more than a decade of experience in economic policy and public affairs, working at the intersection of the private sector and public institutions. Before joining CPAG, she served as Executive Director of the Foreign Investors Council (FIC), having previously worked for many years within its public affairs team. She coordinated strategic advocacy initiatives, represented the business community in dialogue with authorities, and managed key projects aimed at improving Romania's economic and regulatory environment. She holds a Bachelor's Degree in Law and a Master's Degree in Public Institutions Management. Her areas of interest include evidence-based policymaking, competitiveness, fiscal and structural reforms, and long-term economic strategy.
George Ștefan
Lead Researcher
George Ștefan is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Economic Policies at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies (ASE). He holds a PhD in Economics (2015) and has over 12 years of experience in Romania's public administration, including advisory work for the Minister of Finance and roles within the Agency for Foreign Investment and Trade; he previously supported Foreign Investors Council projects on investment and macroeconomic indicators and contributed to the Government of Romania's National Plan for the Adoption of the Euro (2018). His work focuses on fiscal policy, energy transition, labour and healthcare economics, and local development and competitiveness, with research and collaborations involving national institutions and international organisations such as the National Commission for Strategy and Forecast (CNSP), the Aspen Institute Romania, the World Bank, the European Investment Bank, the Korea Development Institute and Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Vlad Bulai
Senior Research Expert
Vlad Bulai has more than 10 years of experience in the energy industry and holds a PhD in economics and international affairs from the Bucharest University of Economic Studies. His areas of interest include the social and economic impact of the energy industry in the energy transition context, as well as the economics of decarbonization.
Scientific Board
Our Scientific Board comprises distinguished academics who provide scientific guidance and ensure methodological rigor in CPAG's research. Their consultative role helps maintain the highest standards of economic analysis.
Patrick Minford
Professor of Applied Economics
Cardiff University
Max Gillman
Friedrich A. Hayek Professor of Economic History
University of Missouri – St. Louis
David Meenagh
Professor of Economics
Cardiff Business School
Vo Phuong Mai Le
Professor of Economics
Cardiff Business School
Ruthira Naraidoo
Professor of Economics
University of Pretoria
Council of Distinguished Minds
Our Council of Distinguished Minds brings together respected leaders from business, academia, and public institutions who contribute strategic perspectives on Romania’s development priorities. The Council serves exclusively in an advisory capacity and on a voluntary basis, with no governance responsibilities or involvement in CPAG’s research outputs.
Our Mission
To conduct in-depth research in order to shape ideas and emerging problems into economic policy issues and support quality economic policy debate in Romania, the region, the EU, and the world.
Our Purpose
To provide a constructive forum for the exchange of ideas and information between key stakeholders in the economic policy formulation process and facilitate public understanding of policy issues.
2017
Established
20+
Years Research & Policy Advisory
100%
Evidence-Based
RO / EU / Global
Focus Area
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